Tuesday, June 2, 2015

Bloodshed In Singapore Market - Good News or Bad News?

Today (2nd June 2015), there is only one uniform color in Singapore's Stock Market, which is crimson! STI ended 51.36 points lower at 3,340.75 (which is a drop of 1.51 %). I believed this is one of the sharpest decline in the recent months. I did a quick check, the last similar range of decline is on 16th December 2014 whereby STI declined 58.98 points. 

Is it a sign of more dire situation in the upcoming days/weeks? 

Is it a delayed effect of "Sell in May and go away" phenomenal? 

Is it a bad news? 

Is it a good news? (as per those contrarian investors, this is a sign of upcoming great opportunity)

In any case, there are only 3 possible direction of the market movements, it is either :
1. Up or
2. Down or
3. Level 

So, either direction has 33.3333% chance, let's not read too much into its cause(s) and just keep calm and stay cool. One of my counter (King Wan) dropped 12.5% today for unapparent reasons but I guess that's how market react within the short term (irrational). 

If your war chest has been collecting dust for the past few months, it might be about time to unlock them and get ready to chiong soon... or maybe not... let's keep a close watch first ;-)

Cheers!

12 comments:

  1. Hi Richard,

    Hmm, disagree on the 33% part. It's like saying that the probability of winning at toto is 50%, because there are only two outcomes (win or lose). Just stay calm and wait for the market to play itself out :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi LP : u really θŒδΈšη—…(see thing too details) The 33% Is talking about equal chance of the direction of market lar, doesn't relate it to win or loss! hahaha..

      Ya, I am as calm as placid water ;-)

      Delete
  2. Hi Richard,

    Nah, not saying about winning or losing. I'm saying just because there are 3 options, doesn't mean that all three having equal chance of being selected. Not everything is a fair die :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LP : I know lar, just like to tease you on your "die die must be meticulously/politically right" answer! lol

      Hope you got your O&G IPO today ;-)

      Delete
  3. I just wasted 2 mins reading this post.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for being frank and sorry for wasting your time ;-)

      Delete
  4. Quote: "One of my counter (King Wan) dropped 12.5% today for unapparent reasons but I guess that's how market react within the short term (irrational)."

    The impact of "unexpected" cut in dividend?

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    Replies
    1. CW8888 : If that's true then the reaction is a bit "kuo zhang" as the dividend in previous year is only 0.015 cents lol

      Delete
  5. KW 4th qtr results was bad...lost > 9mill dr. If not for the strong buffer in the 3 preceding qtrs., they will be in deep shit. A 12.5% drop is therefore not irrational, its reasonable for a lousy set of quarterly results.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Simple investor : thanks for the comment. In fact, there is an increase of 15% revenue in Q3. The overall Q3 result is at a loss of 9 mil because of one time consideration of "impairment allowance" for their China associate.

      I still view that KW has a good prospect ;-)

      Delete
    2. What if you do CNAV now on KW what will we see?

      Delete
    3. CW8888 : Good question..No harm getting an update of King Wan's CNAV. Will post it once done ;-)

      Delete

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